December 1929

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- President Herbert Hoover


February 1930

There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon (The Tim Geithner of the early 30s)


March 8, 1930

“President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days.”

—Washington dispatch

March 16, 1930

 "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
-Herbert Hoover, President of the United States

May 1, 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States

June 29, 1930
"The worst is over without a doubt."
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor

August 29, 1930
"American labor may now look to the future with confidence."
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor

September 12, 1930
"We have hit bottom and are on the upswing."
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor


October 20, 1930

“During the past year you have carried the credit system of the nation safely through a most difficult crisis. In this success you have demonstrated not alone the soundness of the credit system, but also the capacity of the bankers in emergency.”

—Herbert Hoover, Address before the annual convention of The American Bankers Association, Cleveland

Than you had the economic cheerleaders of their day up in Harvard.

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930

"... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930

"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930

"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931


 

There will be no recovery, till the causes of the crisis are addressed.  There will be no addressing the causes of the crisis till it is the only option of the politicians.

Results of a basic internet search.  Herbert Hoover, was actually a really decent man, touted as a pragmatist and a genius, and was really to the left of the 21st century democratic party on some economic issues and the role of government.

The man just did not have the intellectual capacity to understand the actual system was broken, which is my fear with Mr. Obama. 

He's a nice guy, pretty smart, and not ideologically bound.  That being said, he seems to have this misplaced idea fed to him by Geithner and Summers that you can prop up the system and do some minor tweaks.  He's Herbert Hoover redux.

There will be 3,000,000 foreclosures this year and 17% of the population is unemployed, underemployed, or has quit looking.  Nothing has "stabilized"

Another quote:




And...

"Hey everybody!  We're going to Depression Land!  --Jon Stewart to audience

"You're a professor of economics??"  --Jon Steward to Austan Goolsbee

Fascinating.  But do you guys REALLY expect/predict the Second Great Depression?  And if yes, how bad is it going to be?

Excellent.

I like the OP you put together and can see how it impacts the reality of what we are hearing today.

again...Excellent!!!.....

Nope the growth of financial services as an employer and producer of GDP has been exponential since 1981.  Financial services are our brawndo from idiocracy.  It is employing a shit load of people, but is destroying real economic growth in all other sectors.

Couldn't agree more. I don't understand, either, why there is an acceptance that manufacturing is never coming back to this country? The entire national work force supported by small businesses, green jobs and service jobs? I have doubts.

The health insurance industry business is a kind of pooled risk Ponzi scheme. It was not enough for them with their actuarial tables just to grow their business on the front end by recruiting a larger pool, they then cut risk by not underwriting sicker people, they took another step towards making profit - namely denying payments when their insureds had already consumed services- sticking them with the bill. This is the basis of pre-existing clauses and denial of coverage/payments.

I don't know enough about cap n trade but what you say is troubling.

Population is the 2000 lb elephant in the room no one wants to talk about. All talk of the earth's carrying capacity have ceased. Water ( clean, potable) will be the next big shortage and not petro- oil, according to some sources. It already is in a number of places.

The degradation of arable soil, salinization of soil, deforestation are going to go on no matter what or who is in power because human demand is the driver.

This generation of 20 year olds and their kids will be facing a global problem the likes of which we have never seen and probably can't imagine. Unless of course the usual three horsemen appear: disease, war and famine.

We are an intelligent-stupid species with a very self focused short term view of world history and time. In the short blip that man has appeared we have made some dramatic changes. Others may point out that dramatic climactic and natural catastrophes have occurred in the past that make our contribution miniscule.   That is true. But we weren't here then and we may not be here later.

A few years ago I was sitting around one summer evening with some good friends, folks not given to extreme dramatic views nor exaggerations. People who have lived a long life, raised kids and enjoy their grand kids. I wondered where they saw mankind in 150 years? Some were engineers, or teachers, I expected speculation about off world colonies, or some innovative technological solutions. Nope. The majority said: We, mankind, won't be here. It was sobering.

We may not even be able to actually create the multiple solutions, but, I am pretty sure we do not have the will to do so. It's as if we can sit and send info on the inter net and yet, we are still as a world, behaving like we live in Victorian times.

Let's just charge the light brigade through the Khyber Pass and ally with the Pashtuns against the Taliban! Tally ho lads!